Two numbers now, so next year's math isn't a guess.

On Form 1040 that is the line that says “This is your total tax” — line 24 on recent returns. Take it from that line, not the one above it: the line above stops before self-employment tax, and for most ministers self-employment tax is the larger part of the bill. Worth a look at the form itself, since the IRS renumbers these lines from time to time.

These are the figures behind Self-Employment Tax — your four estimated-tax payments. Last year's tax sets the safe-harbor target; the AGI decides whether that target is 100% or 110% of it.

On Form 4361: choose approved copy on file only if the IRS actually sent one back stamped approved. Filing the application isn't the same as being exempt — it can fail for being late, for being filed on financial rather than religious grounds, or because the certification statement the IRS mails back was never signed and returned within 90 days. If you filed but aren't certain it was approved, choose the middle option and we'll keep showing you the tax until you can confirm it. That's the safer way round. Not tax advice.